Last few weeks the escalation of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh is presenting us with the new realities of the NK conflict. The asymmetric power relations around the NK conflict are resulting in more push from the Azerbaijani side and more losses from the Armenian side. The long years of territorial integrity versus self-determination clashes are on the edge of breaking point. The situation also presents that the war is not over, as the Azerbaijani side now claims it to be.
With ongoing geopolitical shifts, the war in Ukraine it is not difficult to assume that the Azerbaijani side aims to gain more leverage and control over the situation in Karabakh. The strategy for this is to create more fears, vulnerabilities, and dependency among the Armenian population of Karabakh. The political precondition to stop that is the demand of Azerbaijan for the withdrawal of Armenian forces from NK, as they refer to the 2020 November agreement, Article 4. Article 4 states the withdrawal of Armenian troops and deployment of Russian Peacekeepers. Yet the vagueness of the document is that it does not indicate that the forces should leave the surrounding seven regions or NK as well. In any case, it is evident that the conflict sides will not refrain from arming themselves for purpose of defending their side. It is also evident that with the current war in Ukraine, Russian peacekeepers are less and less practical in keeping the “peace”.
Now everything comes down to the point that, with more than 30 years of conflict that the Armenian and Azerbaijani populations of Karabakh regions have been forced into, is the loop that they are unable to get out of. The pain and sufferings of neither side are contestable. However, with current power imbalances in favour of the Azerbaijani side now, the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh is facing challenges and threats in their everyday life which should be stopped. If the situation carries on like this, it will leave us fuelled by revanchism, deepened grievances and an unresolved conflict.